ZH comments

Posted on | Friday, January 29, 2010 | No Comments

The comments on their site are so stupid its unreal. No wonder 90% of these people are broke and lose all their money.

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Zero Hedge is starting up their BS again

Posted on | Monday, January 25, 2010 | No Comments


Too bad ES closed with a 79.25% retrace off its highs. That's not buying folks, that's called selling. Unbelievable.

The Volume Story: Convictionless Buying Follows Conviction Selling

Tyler Durden's picture

Complacency is back with concerns of an overvalued market promptly brushed under the carpet. The sharp downward market trend has reversed today, courtesy of VWAP algos and other low-volume gimmicks. The volume picture is the same we have seen time and time again- selling accelerates on catalysts, while the autopilot move is higher on marginal volume. The market no longer cares about upside catalysts (look at tepid reaction to earnings season), yet give it a negative catalyst and the floor falls off, with fund managers looking for any excuse to sell.

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More Volume

Posted on | Friday, January 22, 2010 | No Comments

~3.5 traded on the mini, a new high. Watch around the 1075 ES level to see how we trade there. the slight uptick at close is most likely short covering into the weekend. Continue to watch to tightening spread in the face of hgih volume or the lack there of to see if/when we get a reversal. So far still bearish.
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Is this the market top?

Posted on | Thursday, January 21, 2010 | No Comments

Officially you can make a great argument to get short the S&P 500. On this post I talked about how the top would be identified by either a huge spike in volume or a total absence of it. Today we had the largest volume traded in the mini S&P contract since the rally began in 2009 while closing on the lows of the session. We will need to see what develops over the next few days to confirm a reversal in the upward bias, but the bears definitely came out of the cave today. (For real this time)
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Looks like we'll hit that 2 degree decline Obama wants

Posted on | Tuesday, January 5, 2010 | No Comments


Much of U.S. is cold and getting colder

(CNN) -- Another wave of Arctic air, colder than the current one, will plummet southward over the eastern two-thirds of the nation starting Wednesday, forecasters say.

Little Rock, Arkansas, could see an actual temperature of 10 degrees and wind chill of 20 below zero on Friday morning, according to the National Weather Service.

The high temperature will be in the 20s on Thursday and Friday in Dallas, Texas, where consecutive days that cold have not happened since 1998, the weather service said.

"What's unusual about this is the length of the cold snap," CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano said.

"Typically across the South you'll get a two- to three-day cold snap, and then temperatures will moderate," he said. "But we're getting reinforcing shot after reinforcing shot, and that pattern doesn't look like it wants to break down until at least next week."

Safety officials in Virginia were warning children and adults to stay away from frozen ponds and streams.

"It looks very tempting for children and adults to go out on the ice," Virginia Beach Fire Department Battalion Chief Tim Riley told CNN affiliate WAVY, "but the ice will not support the weight of even the smallest children."

A homeless man was found frozen to death in Kansas City, Missouri, where the temperature was 1 degree Tuesday morning, and Salvation Army officials said they desperately need donations of hats, gloves and socks, CNN affiliate KCTV reported.

The temperature is not expected to rise above zero in Kansas City on Friday.

Is David Rosenberg the worlds best counter indcator?

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I think so. He now justifies his incorrect assumptions on the SPX since March 2009 by saying "I'm not wrong, the market is just no longer a leading indicator".

Remember back in trading 101 when you learned that the market is *always* right and doesn't care what you think? Poor David is still trying to learn thing since March 9th 2009 apparently.

You know how people take a trade that's totally stupid and then say "oh this is an investment I'm going to hold on to it longer, it'll come back". "It's my core position I'll trade around it". Sounds like Mr. Rosenberg!

Read more of this silliness

A look back at Crude

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+13% or 954 ticks = $9,540 profit per contract

Inflation or deflation

Posted on | Sunday, January 3, 2010 | No Comments

Still deflation since 8/4/08 however it has definitely been on the decline since 3/9/09. We'll keep monitoring.

A great read to serve as foundation for the new decade

Posted on | Friday, January 1, 2010 | No Comments

In my personal life I have had numerous conversations pertaining to how market systems, and economics, are man made versions of nature. Forest fires consume the dead and displace the weak in order to make room for the rebirth of nature and life. In order to obtain serenity, we sometimes (often) have to go through hell on a routine basis.

Keep this in the back of your mind during the next decade. There will be wonderful rises and equally fantastic falls in the economy, capital markets and, and even in your personal life. It is nature. Remembering this greatly helps to absorb the the impact when it comes.

Here's a wonderful read from automatic earth. I do not subscribe to elliot wave theory or 90% of technical analysis in general. Nevertheless it is a good read.

I wish you the all the best this decade.

January 1 2010: Fractal Adaptive Cycles in Natural and Human Systems

Detroit Publishing Co. Taxi! Taxi! 1900
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Ilargi: A happy new year for all of you from us at the Automatic Earth. May you spend every minute of it in the best of health and the greatest of company. We strongly recommend you pay increased atttention to both; chances are you're going to need them more than ever this year. Worth more than pieces of gold, as the man says.

Stoneleigh opens 2010 with a reflection on patterns that emerge throughout the living world, including the way we organize our economic systems, and how they organize us in return.


Fractal Adaptive Cycles in Natural and Human Systems

Adaptive cycles are the foundation of both natural ecological and human socio-economic systems, and have been investigated independently from very different perspectives by ecologists and financial analysts who have almost certainly never heard of each others' work. It is interesting then to look at the strong correspondence of the self-similar hierarchical patterns, best described as fractals, which emerge from both fields. This form of organization seems to be a fundamental dynamic in many areas.

The bewildering, entrancing, unpredictable nature of nature and people, the richness, diversity and changeability of life come from that evolutionary dance generated by cycles of growth, collapse, reorganization, renewal and re-establishment. We call that the adaptive cycle. Holling, 2009

Figure 1: Sierpinski Triangle Fractal

Holling, Panarchy and Resilience

Arguably the most significant thinker in the field of ecological cycles has been Buzz Holling, who refers to the conceptual model he derived from the study of forest ecosystems as Panarchy. Holling observed that ecosystems developed in adaptive cycles of exploitation, conservation, release and reorganization which could be described in three dimensions - ecological 'wealth', connectedness and resilience. These cycles provide a framework for the opposing forces of growth and stability versus change and variety.

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