2010

Posted on | Friday, February 26, 2010 | No Comments

A look at market sentiment ahead of the rally

Posted on | Thursday, February 25, 2010 | 2 Comments

top looks at sentiment of the cash mkt, red line is S&P futures
middle is S&P pit sentiment, red line is S&P futures
bottom is dow futures sentiment, red line is dow futures.
*I dont plot the red lines, they're on here for comparison purposes of index movement vs sentiment only

green is bullish, magenta is bearish. If you're green you have a bullish bias, ie you long every pull back. If its magenta you short every rally.

note how the S&P pit was bullish the majority of the cash open, made a weak attempt at getting bearish then went bullish again after noon est.

cash was increasing in bullishness just after the pit went bull. dow futures lagged everyone but were still bullish ahead of the rally.

Then we had size come thru in the futures starting at 13:45 est, well after sentiment favored going long.

These sentiment indicators measure bulls vs bears in real time based on what is actually happening across the futures and the cash. They are not predictive, they are not designed to be predictive. They are mirror images of reality so that your bias is always on the right side of the market and what is actually happening. Technical analysis doesn't work. Thankfully, this isn't based off of anything technical.

Related posts:
A look at conflict between cash and futures pit

Zero Hedge "tired" of seeing computers trade like smart humans

Posted on | Wednesday, February 24, 2010 | No Comments

Long story short: ZH is mad again that an Evil Machine buys low when selling pressure subsides and sells into strength for a profit like a profitable human does! Oh the HORROR!

I don't even trade the market they're talking about but lets be rational for 2 fn seconds:

Now for the juicy stuff...For months now i have been watching a specific
algorithm push our markets around with great ease. It looks like this algo is
giving the SPY a little push through support and resistance levels with massive
size executed in seconds. Sometimes the push is tens of thousands of shares, the
size all depends on the natural volume around the level which the SPY is trading
at the time it may need a "Jump". For instance if the market is oversold on a 1
min time frame and is trying to break higher off lows but just cant get the
party going on its own, the algo will come in and take offers until day traders,
scalpers, swing traders jump in and chase the market higher. Once the price gets
"jumped" the algo just sits and waits till natural buyers and sellers are few
and far between and it either dumps or takes in more. Usually the program will
reset itself after a trade, then will wait till it senses low volume once again.

For some concrete evidence of this action i have done a quick
illustration, which includes Time & Sales which only display prints on the
exchange the algorithm does business on. This exchange is used because of its
very nice rebate structure, and it allows the algo to exploit the SOES, meaning
it cannot trade in blocks larger than 10000 shares per order. So what does it
do, it takes blocks almost 10,000 shares multiple times a second, this price
action causes the market to lift violently. This is not small money, remember
small money follows big money.

The algo in question starts buying at
110.04 with one block of 9999 shares, followed by 60k more shares all bought in
under two minutes. You can see from the chart how the SPY reacted, it violently
moved higher all the way up to 110.55, where the algo dumped just about all of
the shares, you can see the prints in the "dump" prints window, again only
showing the print from the exchange the algo does business on. The algo did its
job, the cash market snapped back, the components again caught a bid and moved
higher through resistance. I.E. they look alive and well... Natural buyers came
in above the 110.55 level chasing the market up another 50 cents or so before
they left and the SPY fell again because the volume was not there to support the
massive run up which took place over 15 minutes. As you can see the algo works
in two capacities, it manipulates the market to the upside along with keeping
S&P500 components trading in a liquid orderly "non flat" fashion.

Theses geniuses even show a chart of how smart the Evil Machine is (click this Gem to make it larger):

1: Green circle around the volume? that's your key into selling pressure subsiding on that move down. That means sellers are done adding supply to the market and declining prices are DONE declining. See how they say "Natural buyers very thin", it's SELLERS that are thin. You know this because the DECLINE IN PRICE HAS STOPPED. It only stops if sellers stop adding supply greater than existing demand OR incoming demand forces price to stop declining because it exceeds the sellers supply.

1A: There is no fucking such thing as a "natural buyer". Algo or Human, all the supply/demand coming in to a mkt still counts kid-o, regardless of who/what initiated it.

2: No shit you buy here, in fact look at everyone else who did in their time and sales. See all the green at offer BEFORE the Evil Machine came in? People buying bc shits cheap and selling has subsided.

3: Remember how you profit when buy low? That's right, you HIT THE BID and sell it back to all the suckers now buying at already marked up prices. And they did, look at the red in the next time and sales besides what they have circled. People and the Evil machine hitting the bid to book profits OH THE HORROR.

View the complete post on how disturbed they are that they don't understand these concepts here

Buy low sell high is far from a new concept. Here is some recommended reading so you don't blame your trading ineptitude on computers. I will not waste your time w BS links and fkd up conjectured theories that have zero relevance to making money to justify my losses.

Disclaimer: I have no affiliation with Dr. B but he's dead on in what he writes about. He'd probably hate my guts if he ever saw this site.
Related Topics:
What I wish I had been taught when I first started trading @ BIDHITTER
Fade What You See
A Framework For Thinking About Short Term Market Behavior
Anatomy of a Market Breakout
Using Market Delta In Trading
Five Guiding Principles for Short Term Trading
Zero Hedge's New Justification for Spewing Falsehoods

A must watch, finally some honesty

Posted on | Monday, February 22, 2010 | No Comments

Look at this crap

No Comments

Check out this dude using ninjatrader's market replay posing as if he was making real trades to sell his shit.

He recorded the session, then REPLAYED it on the simulator and took trades to make it look like it was real, however he already knew the direction of the market.

I'd like to see his argument against this. Too bad for him he has time and sales up and it doesn't even move. In real life time and sales flies on the minis. Uh oh NT doesn't record time and sales. SCAMOLAAAAAAAA

http://www.tradersinternational.com/library/tod/2010/02/18/18.html
here's his disclaimer he pops up, for -0.31243 seconds, indicating its a scam.

HE SHOULD BE LIKE US AND TELL YOU EVERYTHING IS A GIANT RACKET AHEAD OF TIME!!!!!!! VISIT ALL OUR AFFILIATES AND MAKE US TONS OF MONEY!

im off to get some drinks.

A look at conflict in the cash and futures pit

1 Comment

Here's a look at sentiment on friday and again today. Note the extreme bearishness in the futures vs the cash today. Compare that to the bullishness from friday in both markets (Green in both, also NYSE sentiment was 20K vs todays's 6K). Friday the pit sentiment dropped off as traders took profits into rising prices, selling high.

Although sentiment increased in the pit this PM, it dropped sharply into the close just after the NYSE sentiment began to decline.

Market recap for week ending 2/19/2010

Posted on | Friday, February 19, 2010 | No Comments

week2/19/2010 from Walter Sobchak on Vimeo.

LMAO they DID blame robots for todays market move

Posted on | Tuesday, February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment

Zerohedge is at it again with its "market up because of robots" again! The stupidity never ceases to amaze me! Why they can't understand that markets can move with less than average volume is way beyond me.

Luckily BIDHITTER followers are smart and realize that the laws of supply and demand still exist regardless of how many people show up to play. Furthermore broad market (IE GLOBAL) sediment was BULLISH well before the cash mkt opened. Why justify today's move on robots when you clearly have ZERO clue what you are talking about?

Looks like Johnny 5 blew up another account!

A SPY block moves market by several points. We exaggerate. (Not really).
Volume down, market up, volume up, market down. Rinse, repeat. Computers are
happy as pigs in a trough as shorts refuse to even dip a toe in this busted
market. China tightening? Greece collapse? Record debt overhang? Pulled IPOs and
HY deals? Who cares. The algos are sniffing and providing liquidity.

Zero Hedge's new justifcation for spewing falsehoods

Posted on | Saturday, February 13, 2010 | No Comments

Abstract:
The majority of our "news" is total crap because we are understaffed.

(I'm not making this up see for yourself Here)

But, having waxed poetic on our greatness and accomplishments, it falls to us to admit that there is a Dark Side(tm) to employing a non-professional (read: unpaid) and skeleton crew. We miss quite a lot. (Right, like truthful statements) Our tips@zh inbox sees about 200-300 emails per day, of which perhaps 15% are penis enlargement advertisements and 25% represent actionable, interesting material. Yesterday between 12:00am and 11:59pm we processed more than 1700 comments. No, that's not a typo. We are hosting over 225,000 comments in total today.

As you will quickly see, it is literally impossible for
a newsroom as sparse as ours to cover such a beat. We miss quite a lot of
interesting stories. Many reader tips are, if not ignored, simply lost in the
static. More significantly, Zero Hedge employs no "Managing
Editor." (We know, it shows)

Unfortunately, Zero Hedge, which was but a small online carve-out lost in a salty sea of Blogger.com foam only 10 months ago, has reached a point where the weight of subject matter we regularly manage requires a bit more care and attention than we have been able to give before now. (No kidding.)

It is for this reason that Zero Hedge has retained our first Ombuds(wo)man.

It would not be waterboarding the matter in the least to suggest that Zero Hedge is a literal lightening rod for criticism. Nor would it be out of place to point out that, where it is dismissed, Zero Hedge tends to fall into the
"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" bucket. True, we have hit a number of very thin nails on the head (national security exceptions to financial disclosures and AIG balance sheets come to mind). But, to the extent "extraordinary evidence" is the side of that balance sheet that readers (or non-reader critics) find lacking, we are underperforming in the marketplace. This will not do. (The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. This is good)

The sorts of small details that are likely to escape a writing staff with no formal editors in-house, quite obviously, escape us- as we have no formal editors in-house. Moreover, despite the fact that we maintain a dedicated abuse / legal team (with a dedicated inbox that we monitor pretty closely), most Zero Hedge criticism seems to find root in
the pages of other blogs, whose authors do not appear to regard comment from us as a pre-requisite to unfettered publication. Often, we learn of some "cutting" rebuke somewhere in the blogosphere (or even the mainstream media) days or even weeks after its publication. In fact, it seems to be the rule that issues of citation, clerical or even significant factual errors on Zero Hedge play out in public before we ever hear of them. This month (as you may have noticed) has been no exception.
(Oh the irony. They can follow BIDHITTER with an RSS reader and can also follow us off a cliff on twitter. They can also type in http://bidhitter.blogspot.com/ into a fancy web browser and in less than a min they will wind up here. Cooler yet, they can load us up on their MP3 player! It's the wave of the future.)

Market recap for week ending 2/12/2010

Posted on | Friday, February 12, 2010 | No Comments

week212 from Walter Sobchak on Vimeo.

Interpreting volume and why Zero Hedge are morons

Zero Hedge starting up with their BS again

Fading Volume

Equity market sell off

No Comments

The global macro theme doesn't have much to do with the domestic equity market sell off. We've been pricing in future growth for a year. Apparently it's here and we've recovered fundamentally. If that's true, we should sell off as our future pricing in of growth has been fully realized. Markets are forward looking discounting mechanisms, not real time. Those appearing on TV who "don't understand the reason for the sell off given the strong fundamentals" are simply foreshadowing their eventual demise.

Andrew Ross Sorkin

No Comments

Is on cnbc morning joe or whataver it's called. Watch ZH bust a nut over it's man crush... we need something about bonds catching a bid even though the auction went for shit yesterday too

Banned from twitter?

Posted on | Thursday, February 11, 2010 | No Comments

We lasted all of 12 hours onf twitter before they suspended us for reasons still unknown.

Maybe it was all the porn stars we friended.

The real reason the market won't crash

Posted on | Wednesday, February 10, 2010 | No Comments

I wonder...

No Comments

I wonder if ZH will figure out that the NYSE actually was trading on the computer today :)

Congratulations!

No Comments

To Brooklyn Decker!

She's smart too.

Push them lower Tyler you can do it!!!

Posted on | Tuesday, February 9, 2010 | No Comments

http://twitter.com/zerohedge

BOOM: 12:53 02/09 PRESS: GERMANY GOVT SPOX: GREECE MUST SOLVE OWN BUDGET PROBLEM
2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

German gov't official: rumors are UNFOUNDED
3 minutes ago from TweetDeck

what a day 12:50 02/09 PRESS: GERMANY GOVT DENIES GREECE AID PACKAGE NEARLY DONE DEAL
half a minute ago from TweetDeck

New post: Here Comes The Selling As Germany Claims Greek Bailout Rumors Are Unfounded, Confusion Reigns http://tinyurl.com/yevjzy5
2 minutes ago from Drupal

The silence is deafening at Zero Hedge

2 Comments

no new tweets!? IM SHOCKED!!!!!! Where is my trusted news source when I need them!?

edit: they're back from the dead

# Citi Breaks Secondary Price, As News Of Big Fat Greek Bailout "In Broad Sense Of The Word" Skyrockets Market http://bit.ly/blzmxd 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

Go look again im sure it was just JPM buying SPY shares

The futures market must be rallying

No Comments

And Zero Hedge is trying to tweet it lower:

http://twitter.com/zerohedge

# 09:11 02/09 EU ALMUNIA: SERIOUS RISK OF GREEK SPILLOVER ELSEWHERE IN EMU 11 minutes ago from TweetDeck

# Greek spread widening picks up. 318 an hour ago, now 332 24 minutes ago from TweetDeck

# Chris Whalen Guest Post: OTC Derivatives: Is the DTCC Too Big To Fail? http://bit.ly/dqSPwd 26 minutes ago from TweetDeck

# After ripping tighter earlier, GGBs are now being sold aggressively 32 minutes ago from TweetDeck

# 08:27 02/09 ECB NOWOTNY: ON BASIS NUMBERS UK MOST IN DANGER OF CONTAGION about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck

# Bailout: 08:25 02/09 ECB NOWOTNY: ECB HAS A CLEAR NO-BAILOUT CLAUSE about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck

# New post: Uh, What Greek Bailout? http://tinyurl.com/yfo2ylp about 1 hour ago from Drupal

Play Online Poker

Interpreting volume and why Zero Hedge are morons (video)

Posted on | Saturday, February 6, 2010 | No Comments

There has been enormous interest in sponsors, newsletters and detailed explanations of market conditions. It seems as though there is still some intellect left as in others who also laugh at Zero hedge. Here is a preview of things to come.

A quick look at things regarding the following posts:
One
Two
Three
Four
Five